Iran: How did we get here and what comes next? - A Strategic Analysis of the Current Crisis and Possible Post-Regime Scenarios
March 19, 2026 | UlyssesForty-seven years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iranian people have their last chance at attaining freedom. The Near East region also has its first opportunity at lasting peace and stability and an end to the Islamic Republic’s asymmetric warfare against Israel, the United States and its Arab neighbors. This strategic analysis represents one analytical interpretation of events and possible outcomes.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has utilized its proxies for decades to ignite conflict and destabilize the Near East region and these militias have included: Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas and Islamic Jihad (Israel and the Palestinian Territories), the Badr Organization and others (Iraq), Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zainebyoun (two militias operating in Syria during the Asad regime) and the Houthis (Yemen). In addition, sales of Iranian military equipment have also been traced back to Al-Shabab (Somalia) and Iranian drones to Russia (for Russia’s use during the early years of the War in Ukraine). Together these militias and military equipment formed the backbone of the Iranian regime’s “Axis of Resistance” with millions of Near East peoples as well as Ukrainians caught in the crossfire. The weakening of Yemeni Houthis via airstrikes as well as their Iranian supply lines during Operation Gideon’s Chariot by Israel in Gaza in May of 2025 as well as the fall of the Asad regime have helped to create the underlying conditions for Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” to weaken. Billions in international trade in the shipping industry have also been impacted over the years via the regime’s closing of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and using the Houthis and Al-Shabab as proxies for harassing ships.
On September 29, 2025, international sanctions against the Ayatollahs were successfully imposed by the UN, the European Union, the United States and others. This followed the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as Iran had repeatedly failed to comply with limits on its nuclear program that were imposed by the international community. With the reinstatement of sanctions, falling oil revenues led to extreme inflation at nearly 40%. Inflation impacted local food and commodities with prices rising as high as 70% inflation for basic goods, causing the Iranian Rial to go into rapid free-fall and harming Iranian families in their struggles to make ends meet. The Islamic Republic also severely mismanaged the nation’s limited water sources after years of drought impacting those working in the agricultural sector and millions of farmers, the sector in which most Iranians are employed. Dams were mismanaged as well as desalinization plants leading to water shortages for millions of households. In addition, Israel’s successful strikes against Iran’s nuclear plants put an end to the regime’s attempts to become a nuclear power. By December 2025, the Iranian Rial was in a severe state. With the collapse of the Iranian Rial and the closing of Tehran’s main bazaar via a general strike by the merchant classes on December 28, 2025, the Iranian people reached a boiling point and protests erupted across the country.
Demonstrations reached their peak on January 7th and 8th 2026 with protests in over 30 provinces and 100 cities. As darkness encroached upon the cities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij-e-Mostazafan Militia (Police Units and Special Forces) opened fire on protesters with live ammunition and tear gas reigned down upon them. This ended with mass arrests and thousands of disappearances. Many were sentenced immediately to execution by the Ayatollahs. Many protesters that suffered gunshot wounds sought emergency care, only to later die via headshot wounds as the IRGC swarmed like ants into the hospitals seeking out protesters and murdering them in cold blood according to reports by the Guardian of the regime’s atrocities. The aftermath of the protests devastated the world with estimates of upwards of 30,000 young Iranians executed by the regime.
The War in Iran now known as Operation Epic Fury went kinetic on February 27th and 28th with a decisive strike by Israel with support from the United States which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Israeli component of the attack is known as Operation Lion’s War. The main goals of the operation include disabling Iran’s ballistic missile systems, crippling their production, neutralizing Iranian naval forces, disabling Iranian air defense networks and preventing any further development of nuclear capabilities. Ultimately, several scenarios can play out once the conflict ends. The best-case scenario would be if The Islamic Republic of Iran fell, the Iranian people then could peacefully reclaim their country, and Iran can transition into a free Republic which was what President Trump encouraged the Iranian people to do by taking back their country. The American public is largely averse to a “boots on the ground war” due to Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) which lasted for decades in the region with heavy American military casualties. Iran’s vast territory and Zagros mountain range also make sending in the military extremely difficult given the complex terrain. The second scenario would include a weakened regime and negotiations. The Islamic Republic can choose further negotiations with the United States, Israel and others via Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. From a realist perspective, he is a hardliner, like his father, negotiations are likely to stall and to be fraught with tension with his father having been killed during the conflict. In addition, the Iranian people would continue to suffer under the worst excesses of the regime, especially the women. A third possible scenario is the partial fall of the regime. This last scenario might be fraught with chaos and could potentially lead to more deaths, destruction of infrastructure, the potential fracturing of the state into balkanized ethnic states and sectarian violence. This paper will focus on the first scenario which is the best-case scenario for the American and Iranian people.
The Naval component of Operation Epic Fury has had many early wins giving hope that scenario one can play out. Over thirty Iranian naval vessels were damaged by America’s elite naval pilots and Israel’s elite pilots along with an Iranian submarine, the IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka which was on its way back to Iran following a military exercise. The regime’s drone carrier, the IRIS Shadid Bagheri was also struck and lit on fire while docked in the port of Bandar Abbas. Finally, the entire Iranian Naval presence in the Gulf of Oman has been eliminated thanks to power of U.S. Navy Tomahawk missiles. Naval pilots from both the United States and Israel have also struck the remaining components of the regime’s Nuclear Plants. U.S. Admiral Bradley Cooper from CENTCOM has confirmed that 75% of all Iranian missile launchers under the control of the IRGC have been destroyed with only 100-200 missiles remaining and over 30 ships have sunk. As of the second week of March, a significant component of the top leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has also been killed mostly via airstrikes including Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s Supreme National Security Secretary, Ali Shamkhani, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Sayyid Abdolrahim Mousavi, and Commander of Iran’s Police Intelligence Organization, Gholamreza Rezaian, among many others. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has just been announced as the new Supreme Leader.
In response to these devastating losses, the Ayatollahs have launched drones strikes on their neighbors hoping to cause chaos including hitting population centers in Tel Aviv, Israel, Dubai Airport in the UAE, RAF Akrotiri, a British military base in Cyprus, Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, Duqm and Salah Ports in Oman and Nakhichevan International Airport in Azerbaijan. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s drones also attacked U.S. bases in Erbil, Iraq, targeted U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Al Udeid U.S. Air Base in Qatar and Camp Buehring Ali Al Salem U.S. Air Bases in Kuwait killing six Americans. The Ayatollahs have also launched drones at Türkiye that both Turkish military and NATO have intercepted bringing NATO into the war. The Ayatollah’s call to attack Americans also inspired a group of radical Shi’a Pakistanis to storm the United States consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Fortunately, the RSO quickly responded and intervened to save American lives. On March 8th an explosion also detonated near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway and this bombing was inspired by the Islamic Republic leadership’s rhetoric as well. Despite calls by U.S. leadership for the IRGC and Ayatollahs to lay down their weapons, the Ayatollahs have double downed and are unlikely to surrender given their fanatical religious beliefs in martyrdom and their fervent belief in their own divine right to rule. Mujtaba Khamenei is likely to seek vengeance for the death of his father. The regime is likely to fight to the bitter end.
Operation Epic Fury is also targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Pasdaran, which is the ideological military guard created in 1979 by the Ayatollahs as well as the military-intelligence branch of the Islamic Republic. The IRGC is being weakened with estimates of 1,000-1,500 IRGC leaders killed as of the first week of March of 2026. Major General Mohammed Pakphour, head of the IRGC has also been killed. IRGC Command Centers are being targeted by Israeli and American airstrikes including IRGC Headquarters in Tehran, IRGC intelligence buildings and aerospace and drone arsenals which the IRGC oversees. Traditionally, the IRGC has been embedded throughout all the Islamic Regime’s ministries and government entities, and they must be completely removed for any chance at long-term stability moving forward.
The Basij-e-Mostazafan militia falls under the control of the IRGC and is the volunteer paramilitary force that has enforced compliance of the regime’s version of Islamic social rules and has acted as a surveillance force on the population. On March 17, 2026, Gholamreza Soleimani, Commander of the Basij-e-Mostazafran was killed by Israeli airstrikes. These rules have included forced gender segregation, forced hijab/chador for women, bans on Western culture and entertainment, alcohol restriction, social media bans and many others. The Basij has 90,000 active members and 300,000-600,000 in reserves with potentially millions of unregistered volunteers. They are embedded in local neighborhoods, schools and universities, government offices, factories and bazaars. These are the Islamic Republic’s shock troops, and they can blend in easily into the general population. If the regime falls, targeted revenge acts and vigilante justice by communities against members of the Basij.
The one entity trusted by the Iranian populace that has the potential to lead a peaceful transition post-war would be the Artesh. According to the Institute for Study of War reporting, 10 of the 17 Artesh Air Force bases have been attacked in joint Israeli-US airstrikes. However, once the Artesh’s Airforce capabilities are dismantled and any leadership that are identified and aligned with the Islamic Republic removed, elements of the Artesh can cooperate with the international community to stabilize Iran for a variety of reasons. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s defensive military or Artesh is separate from the IRGC and has about 340,000 active-duty personnel and focuses solely on National Defense. The Artesh has historically avoided engaging in the internal politics of the Islamic Republic. The Artesh includes Iran’s Naval, Army and Air Force components. The Artesh could form a civilian-military transitional government for Iran only if the IRGC and Basij-e-Mostazafan militia are completely dismantled and disarmed. The Artesh could bring stability and maintain the balance of power and keep it in check like the role of the Turkish military in the Republic of Türkiye. If the IRGC falls during Operation Epic Fury, the Artesh can secure borders as well as key infrastructure, oil, water and border passes and cities. The Artesh can also work with humanitarians to ensure that emergency medical aid, food and water is provided as well as helping in the return and reintegration of any IDPs. The Artesh has more public legitimacy than most institutions in Iran due to its history. In 1979 when the Islamic Revolution occurred, the Artesh largely stood down and did not attack Iranian civilians. The Artesh has remained outside of politics as well as the economy and has focused largely on national defense making it a trustworthy entity with Iranian Civilians.
A transitional government to include members of Artesh and trusted civilians can be stood-up post conflict. International recognition would need to take place for the transitional government to lend it legitimacy. Following that, a temporary military-civilian council can be stood-up, the drafting of a new constitution and free and fair elections can take place to elect new leadership. Tunisia’s post-Arab spring transition from Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to the Republic of Tunisia during the Jasmine Revolution included the military playing a stabilizing role to protect state institutions and prevent chaos until the transitional civilian government was in place. This would be an important regional case study to examine. Iran’s transitional government would need to be inclusive given Iran’s vast differences in ethnic and religious groups, and this would allow for political buy-in by all these groups as well as inclusion of women in leadership roles given their marginalization under the Islamic regime.
Basic Government services will need to be re-established to strengthen local governance including utilities, waste disposal, water, electricity, healthcare and other forms of service delivery for the general population. Once basic security is re-established free media and civil society can also begin to operate. Eventually, the transitional government alongside international observers can hold free and fair elections.
The post war transition will also need civilians to provide recommendations to the transitional government on the transition of key sectors back to civilian control. There are “lessons learned” from Iraq on de-Ba’athification that can be applied to Iran on this. One of the most important lessons from de-Ba’athification is to target individuals based on crimes, not entire bureaucratic classes. In addition, political exclusion of certain groups could lead to sectarian tensions and potential insurgencies. One of the most important sectoral priorities will be to dismantle the current Judicial System which is based on Sharia law and re-establish a secular traditional judicial system. Transitional Justice must balance accountability and reconciliation. This would require civilian technical support and long-term training.
In addition, to restoring local governance and the judicial system economic stabilization efforts would need to immediately address inflation and stabilize the currency. Banking systems will also need to be restored, going after corruption and funds remaining in the system still under control by the IRGC as well as dismantling or transitioning the IRGC state-run companies to new ownership.
Oil and gas operations will also need to be restored given that Iran has the world’s fourth largest oil and gas reserves and terminals and pipelines will need to be repaired. Currently the Strait of Hormuz has become a chokepoint as 20% of global oil trade passes through it. Oil and gas shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz will need to be opened as well. Closed shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz can potentially impact the world’s food supply which is dependent upon oil byproducts shipped via containers through the Strait of Hormuz. This includes sulfur, which is an oil byproduct used in fertilizer to grow crops. Iran’s National Oil Company will need to be transferred over to the transitional government’s control and sovereign wealth funds can be explored to support the economy. Prior to the war, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary customer. However, the PRC obtains most of its oil supplies currently from Saudi Arabia and Russia but benefitted from cheap oil exports from both Venezuela and Iran. Prior to Operation Epic Fury, the Islamic Republic’s primary customer was the PRC at 1.38 million barrels a day being exported and allowing the regime to circumnavigate sections. The PRC often purchased up to 80%-90% of Iran’s oil exports which fueled the CCP’s state run manufacturing base. In a post war scenario, Iran’s oil exports can be sold to India, Türkiye, Europe and Southeast Asia as potential new markets. Another issue to note is that the world’s helium supply also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Helium is a byproduct of natural gas, used in the manufacturing of microchips essential to accelerate Artificial Intelligence. China is a major consumer of Qatari helium for microchip manufacturing which is significant for the Artificial Intelligence race. The U.S. should discuss this with Qatar and encourage alternative buyers for helium. As a result of Operation Epic Fury, China’s Strategic Partnership with Iran will remain limited. China has also decided not to support the Islamic Republic regime directly in the war.
The outcomes of Operation Epic Fury and how long the war will last are hard to predict. However, the best-case scenario can lead to a free Iran governed by the consent of its people, long-term peace and stability in the region with the end of pipelines to the Islamic Republic’s regional proxies, improve the flow of goods through the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and force the PRC to seek alternative oil supplies.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-heavy-reliance-iranian-oil-imports-2026-01-13/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Army
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/irans-revolutionary-guards
